"Backers claim that “The Grange” will yield a payment to Oregon of $100,000,000 every year (25% of the casino’s “adjusted gross revenues”, or AGR: receipts from gaming only (after payouts to winner). If they do manage this contribution, that would be approximately 10% of what the Oregon Lottery made in all of 2011. That’s serious money — if it happens. Casinos don’t make their earnings public, so it’s hard to know if this is realistic or a number devised to sell the ballot measures. But the promise of $100,000,000 being contributed to the Lottery and the Fund every year tells us the casino owners expect to make $400 million in gaming each year (after paying off winners). Is that number realistic? It would be nearly half what the Lottery pulled in 2011 (and would, of course, include a lot of dollars people spend at the casino rather than on the Lottery).

For comparison purposes, in 2010, in the Kansas City, MO, area, a city comparable to Portland in many ways, had revenues of $753.4 million. Across the state in St Louis, the take was over $1 billion. Downtown Las Vegas, even with competition for the $5.7 billion dollar strip, still made nearly $500 million. All there areas draw from larger markets, are easily reached by far more people, and have much more in the way of tourist attractions, from major league sports to large entertainment venues. (Statistics from The Innovation Group, which also shows receipts for these casinos significantly reduced through May 2012.) So while $400 million does seem possible, it also seems problematic. If gaming is to be profitable long-term at Wood Village, it will require aggressive marketing that will take away from tribal business.

Or could end up losing to the casino at Cascades Locks, if that location ends up being a more attractive draw.

So: $100,000,000 a year based on $400 million in gaming revenue is possible but far from a sure bet. But the contribution to the Lottery from gaming is not all the backers are touting as economic benefit: there are also jobs and taxes."

Get the Story:
T.A. Barnhart: Gambling on a casino. Part 2: Promises, or shooting craps? (BlueOregon 9/12)

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