Opinion: A sucker's vote for expansion of non-Indian gaming

While the ballot measure says casinos will generate “job growth,” “more school aid” and “lower property taxes,” the projected impacts won’t actually amount to much in a statewide context. In fact, the new jobs will be relatively few, the new school aid will be minimal and the impact on property taxes in most of the state will be barely perceptible.

Let’s take the claims one at a time.

Job creation: NY Jobs Now, the labor-business coalition campaigning for Proposal One, claims approval will lead to the creation of “more than 10,000 new, permanent jobs.”

It’s not clear whether the estimate relates to the initial four upstate casinos authorized by the Prop One enabling statute, or the seven that can be in operation once the New York City region is opened to full-blown casinos after seven years. The state Gaming Commission estimated that the four upstate casinos alone will create 9,600 jobs — 6,700 temporary construction jobs and just 2,900 net additional permanent positions.

Even the higher figure of 10,000 would boost total upstate private-sector employment by a grand total of just 0.4 percent. And the new jobs would be concentrated entirely in a few host communities — one of which must, by law, be in the Capital Region, whose relatively strong economy has already been pumped up by billions in state subsidies for tech investments.