Cronkite News
PHOENIX – Tuesday marked 52 weeks until voters will elect a commander-in-chief, all 435 members of Congress and 33 of 100 senators. But for the first time since Bill Clinton won re-election in 1996, pundits aren’t sure whether Arizona will vote red or blue.
Mike Noble, chief of research and managing partner at OH Predictive Insights, said results of the 2016 election point to the state’s uncertain leanings in 2020. Because Donald Trump won Arizona by just 3.5 percentage points, he said, the election will be hard to predict.
“We see the biggest part of where Republicans are hurting right now are among 18- to 34-year-olds,” Noble said. “Hispanics, which is an emerging large demographic here, also suburban voters that we’re seeing. So again, among those moderates, those folks in the middle … they’re just not going the GOP’s way, which they used to go their way.”
And the two major political parties are reacting to that assessment.
Some upcoming deadlines to remember
Months before the November 3 general election, a presidential preference election will be held, but only the Democratic Party will participate, which means only registered Democrats can cast ballots. Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs recommends you do several things before you vote in the March 17 primary.
“Voters need to be aware of the deadlines for registering to participate … especially for the presidential preference election,” Hobbs said.
Registration for the presidential preference election is February 18, 2020. Independent voters can change their registrations back after the primary.
Young voters can preregister in Arizona.
“My daughter turns 18 in January,” Hobbs said, “and she’s already registered to vote. And actually, on the way out the door this morning she said, ‘This is the last election I can’t vote in!’”
Working to make it easier to vote
For some Arizona groups, the real battle will come before a single ballot is cast. Arizonans for Fair Elections was launched to make voting easier for disenfranchised groups.
“What we’ve seen at the state Legislature over the last several years is that there’s been a coordinated attempt to stop people from actually having access to the ballot box,” said Rep. Reginald Bolding, D-Phoenix. “We know here in this state, in this country, fairness to elections has always been at the forefront of democracy.”
Arizonans for Fair Elections contends that many rural Arizonans don’t have access to the internet to register to vote, or transportation to the polls.
The group last week introduced the Fair Elections Act, an initiative that would lower campaign contribution limits and ban politicians from receiving gifts from special interest groups or individuals. It also would require election officials to update voter registration information and allow automatic registrations on election day.
“We’re talking about boosting clean elections. … Hopefully ending all the abuses of the lobbying and influence process and making voting easier for all Arizonans,” said Marie Provine, president of the Arizona Advocacy Network, a progressive nonprofit that supports the Fair Elections Act.
The measure needs 237,645 signatures by July 2 to qualify for the November 3 election.
You can check your party affiliation and confirm your address ahead of the election by going to the secretary of state’s website.
For more stories from Cronkite News, visit cronkitenews.azpbs.org.
Note: This story originally appeared on Cronkite News and is published via a Creative Commons license. Cronkite News is produced by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University.
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